Tuesday, December 11, 2007 - Posts
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Have you heard the watchword of the day? It’s electability. Both Hillary and Obama hosted conference calls on the subject. Meanwhile, the latest CBS/New York Times poll found that none of the GOP candidates are “viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate.”
The question of electability—a candidate’s chances of success in the general election—has been raised about every candidate in the race. So, is anyone electable? The answer is no. Here’s why:
Mike Huckabee: No foreign policy experience. Depth of his ignorance will emerge. (Already botched questions about Iran, gays, and AIDS.) Fair tax plan is a fat target. Top Democrats see Huckabee as an “easy kill.” And that name! As Dan Bartlett said: “Huckabee? You've got to be kidding me.”
Rudy Giuliani: Post-convention, the scandal dragon awakens. You thought accounting-gate was bad. Wait for his other mayoral records to emerge. Nor will Kerik’s indictment go away. Personal life will start to matter. Against a family man, he’s dead meat. Watch his daughter endorse Obama, again.
Mitt Romney: Flip-flops will haunt him. Former pro-choice stance might have helped—but not now that he’s changed it. Same with support for gay rights. Even if he sneaks his Mormonism past the primaries, it could still hurt him in the general.
Fred Thompson: Zzzz zz zzzzz z zzzz zz zzz zzzzzzzzzzz. Zzz? Z zzz zzzz z zzzzz! *Cough* Zzzzz …
John McCain: Doesn’t have the stamina. Can’t hold his own against a younger opponent. Maverick streak of 2000 is gone. And if the Iraq war goes south again, he’ll go south with it.
Hillary Clinton: Bill Clinton: an oppo researcher’s wet dream. Plus, she’s got high negative ratings nationwide.
Barack Obama: Republicans will chew him up on experience. Debates will be puppy vs. pit bull. Closet racists will screw him in the voting booth. Oh, and the cocaine.
John Edwards: Did he get elected in 2004? Exactly.
Joe Biden: With a words spoken/foot-in-mouth ratio of about 20/1, Biden would sink himself and the entire Democratic party. Not gonna happen.
Bill Richardson: His Iraq withdrawal plan is foolhardy. He’s overly touchy. And say what you will, he looks like he stopped losing weight a while ago.
Ron Paul: If the country embraces the gold standard, Congress abolishes the IRS, and we decide we don't need an education department, then yes, Ron Paul is electable.
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Chris Dodd kicks off his new ad with this line: “As you might have guessed, I’m not a former first lady, or a celebrity. …” In a conference call with reporters last week, South Carolina state Rep. Leon Howard, who has endorsed John Edwards, referred derisively to other unnamed candidates’ “celebrity status.” As if, in a race where name recognition is half the battle, being famous is suddenly a bad thing.
The attack capitalizes on the notion that Barack Obama is an empty vessel, all glitz and no substance. That just because he has David Geffen and Oprah Winfrey, it means he doesn’t understand the everyday problems of voters. It’s a bizarre angle for someone who has been in Congress for 30 years, but even more so for Edwards. He appeared on the cover of Men’s Vogue. He shared a stage with John Mellencamp. And then there was that whole vice-presidential nominee thing. Plus, keep in mind that Edwards is boarding the celebrity endorsement bandwagon with glee. This week both Tim Robbins and Kevin Bacon will campaign for Edwards. Dodd, meanwhile, has West Wing star Bradley Whitford shilling for him on YouTube. For either candidate to imply that Oprah's support somehow makes Obama a sellout is silliness.
True, all that glitters may not be gold. But that doesn’t mean all that’s dull—or crabby and self-righteous—is. Attacking the very fact of your opponent’s popularity seems to be the last refuge of a loser.
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John McCain’s camp plays Nostradamus in a campaign strategy PowerPoint that they released on their Web site yesterday, and it’s an insightful peek into the psyche of the once-beleaguered campaign.
Essentially, McCain thinks he’ll win New Hampshire and momentum will carry him from there. Some highlights of the strategy—with some caveats attached:
- McCain is a modern-day Reagan: His campaign thinks he is the only conservative Republican who can keep the Reagan coalition together. Giuliani is too far left and Romnabee hangs too close to the religious right. Problem: That may be true, but poll numbers suggest the religious right is the cool kid in Iowa and South Carolina.
- McCain = Electability: Poll numbers suggest he is the strongest Republican to face off against Hillary Clinton. Problem: What about Giuliani? He has polled well nationally for a reason, and attracts more moderate and independent voters than McCain. Plus, what if the Democrats don’t nominate Hillary?
- New Hampshire, New Hampshire: After Romney loses Iowa, McCain thinks New Hampshire residents will vote for him like they did in 2000. This time, he has Curt Schilling to get him over the top. Problem: With or without an Iowa win, Romney is still from neighboring Massachusetts. That may buy him some percentage points.
- Florida is key: Who cares that more than 20 states are voting on Feb. 5? McCain thinks that Florida will vote for whomever has the most momentum on Jan. 29, which will only help boost his momentum going into Feb. 5. Problem: What if a bunch of different candidates take the first three or four states leading up to Florida? Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, Giuliani wins South Carolina, and McCain wins Michigan. In that case, no candidate is likely to bust through Giuliani’s firewall in Florida.
McCain can certainly win the nomination, but his campaign is banking on a complicated chain reaction to produce a victory. If a McCain win in New Hampshire doesn't materialize, then he doesn't have a catalyst. Without a catalyst, McCain's political equation won't produce a nomination.
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