Kausfiles: A mostly political weblog.

It's Not That He's Black. It's That He's An Enigma.

The more I think about it, the more the townhall anti-Obama anger isn't explained completely by the issues (sorry, Frank ). There's also something about Obama himself-. But that something (or the main something) isn't his race. It's that he's a relative newcomer, as Presidents go--an unknown quantity, an enigma, with a short track record and patches of that record left fuzzy. That means opponents can fill in the blanks with ominous possibilities. It makes paranoia more rational, if you will.

For example, a few months ago I went to a discussion of the pending "card check" bill Obama has endorsed (enigmatically!). Talk turned to the bill's astoundingly intrusive provision for federal arbitration of initial labor contracts, which would inevitably involve not only the setting of wages but also the organization of work itself. A conservative law prof said he knew Obama as a colleague, and the Obama he knew wouldn't really want that level of detailed and pervasive (if uncoordinated) government direction of economic enterprises. Was the prof right? I have no idea. In contrast, I think I have a pretty confident idea of where Bill Clinton would come down on that issue. I even have a clear idea of where Jimmy Carter would come down on the issue.**

The uncertainty about Obama made it wildly important that he not do things that would give the most common ominous speculation--that he's way on the left of the possible envelope--any traction. Obviously, Obama's White House understands this. Larry Summers is not a lighnting rod for the right. But the Obama-ites apparently failed to internalize this imperative sufficiently to allow them to exclude the Van Joneses and Yosi Sergants from government with the ruthlessness required in a year when they were asking taxpayers to trust them with administering an unprecedented stimulus package and restructuring Detroit and the financial system--all before transforming the nation's health care system. They've been ruthless, just not ruthless enough. Maybe they were lulled into thinking the MSM would, or could, protect them as it had during the campaign (e.g., when Rev. Wright cropped up). But asking 21st century Americans to rely on the assurances of elites is a good way to produce a populist revolt.

After a few years of Obama, voters will have a surer sense of him on their own and the paranoia should subside. Unfortunately, his biggest legislative fight is now.

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**--Of course, one reason a voter might not have a clear idea is that it's been heretofore hard to imagine that mandatory federal arbitration would even be an issue--in recent decades it's been beyond the mainstream pale. If unions didn't like a deal they could strike and try to get a better deal. Then labor got desperate and came up with mandatory arbitration.

Unfamiliar issues + Unfamiliar president = Paranoia.

Obama's Problem Isn't An "Ethics" Obsession

Obama's Presidency in Retrospect--The Daschle Cave: TNR editorializes that Obama's "high minded ethics standards" are preventing him from filling key appointive positions. a) Is Obama's problem an "ethics" obsession or a press obsession? Bouncing Nancy Killefer because a lien had once been put on her house due to $298 in unpaid unemployment taxes on household help--a debt she'd taken care of years ago--didn't reflect an ethics obsession. It reflected a hypertrophied fear of a little ding in the press that might cost the Obama administration .0001% in the polls. At some point, Obama needs to stand up for a qualified appointment (other than Tim Geithner), say "this is my nominee," take the minor news-cycle hit, and push it through. b) In hindsight, isn't it clear that the moment to do this was Daschle's nomination to head Health and Human Services? Daschle was supposed to be the key to the administration's health care strategy. His tax problem involved an understandable question of interpretation (when does a "perk" become taxable income?).  Instead, Obama let Daschle get spooked by a self-righteous editorial in the New York Times. Why not tell the Times to stuff it?  This isn't an excess of Obama administration ethics. It's a deficiency of Obama administration cojones. ... 1:06 A.M.

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Get-Up-and-Get-a-Beer Line of the Day: From Noam Scheiber's solid, highly favorable profile of Larry Summers--

There is surely real value to Summers's respect for institutional boundaries. And no one thinks Larry Summers has suddenly become Sally Quinn. Colleagues say he remains fiercely opinionated in meetings; his humor is sometimes cutting. [E.A.]
 

Projected reader response: 'Hmm. Interesting. If Larry Summers suddenly became Sally Quinn, what would that be like? Lots of possibilities. Would he marry Ben Bradlee? Wonder what Scheiber means. I'll get up and get a beer and think about it.'... P.S.: Does Sally Quinn respect institutional boundaries? Didn't she, a non-Catholic, recently roil Catholics by taking communion at Tim Russert's funeral and then doubling down when criticized about it? Is Quinn secretly meek and unopinionated to those who know her well? Help! ...

Update: Matt Yglesias calls Scheiber's piece "[t]he mother of all beat-sweeteners." Maybe Yglesias really does put his most interesting stuff on Twitter. ... I like Summers so I was receptive to Scheiber's sympathetic take. You have to wonder, though, if Scheiber--or Summers--is setting Treasury secretary Geithner up for a fall with this passage:

Thanks to his vast intellectual range and the urgency of the moment, Summers has thus far taken a leading role in the housing plan, the auto industry rescue, health care, and energy, in addition to the stimulus. But, when it comes to the bank bailout, the consensus is that Summers has scrupulously respected Geithner's turf.

The most-criticized part of Obama's economic strategy is the one part he's not responsible for. ... More: In public, Summers has praised Geithner for daring not to have a plan!

You know I think Secretary Geithner has handled this in a difficult and courageous way. The easy thing to do would be--and anybody who has worked in Washington for a while knows how to do it--would be to lay out a nine point plan with the illusion of specificity and the sense of certainty about what the future would bring.

This defense seems less friendly than it did yesterday. ...1:24 A.M.

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Are Toyota resale values falling? Automotive News reports that the legendary resale value of Toyotas coming off lease has fallen to 46.5%, which is below projections. ... It's not clear if this reflects some underlying problem with the vehicles. (That would be a big deal in the car world.). ... The Toyota Tundra truck, for example, was expected to retain about 60% of its value. In fact it kept only 40.1%. Yet that's still better than its Detroit competitors, the Chevy Silverado (39.9%) and Ford F-150 (32.2%). ... 1:51 A.M.

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Return of the Washington Turf War

Thursday, January 29, 2009 

The Fist Next Time: What if Obama's first foreign policy crisis is a new Tienanmen Moment in China? Bob Wright and I discuss (after trying to figure out what it means, in Obama language, to "unclench your fist").  ... 11:23 P.M.

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Geithner: I am not not not being eaten alive by Larry Summers! (Turns out Geithner's just been "exerting subtle bureaucratic influence"!)  ...  P.S.: For some reason I'm looking forward to the press coverage of mindlessly vicious bureaucratic infighting in the Obama administration. (That sort of ego-tussle can be productive--see Ickes vs. Hopkins.) Was there no domestic policy infighting under Bush, or did the press just not care enough about it to report? ...  10:50 P.M.

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In Gambling, I Think They Call This A Lock: When Obama gives a rousing speech, it just shows what a brilliant wordsmith he is. When he gives a dull speech, it's "perhaps by design"--he's intentionally deflating excessive expectations!--and his "Spare Inaugural Rhetoric Signals Strategic Mastery." ... Nice work if you can get it. ... 7:28 P.M.

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