Kausfiles: A mostly political weblog.

If Gore Had Won the Civil War

Gore would have invaded Iraq, or he would have lost in 2004  to...George W. Bush, who would have invaded Iraq. Similarly, had  Bush refused to consider invading Iraq in 2002, Gore would have come out  for it, would have been the nominee and would have beat Bush in 2004.

Z thinks "Dems were desperate for a military issue to get to the right of the Repubs, and Iraq would have been perfect." ... Hmmm. I tend to think that even if President Gore had wanted to invade Iraq after 9/11 he wouldn't have been strongheaded enough. But he is friends with Marty Peretz. And it's easy to forget how strong the pro-war CFR consensus was in 2002. ...

As for whether Gore would have mounted a successful pro-war challenge to Bush if Bush won and hadn't invaded--well, Gore would have to win the Dem primaries first. How would that have been possible on a pro-war platform? ...  The one "Z" scenario I have trouble discounting is a) Gore wins b) doesn't invade c) loses in 2004 to Bush d) who invades. ... 4:27 P.M.

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Who Whacked Tony?

You Have to Get All the Czars to Sign Off! There aren't many respected foreign policy machers who were right on the Iraq war (no) and on the surge (yes). This is no way to treat one of them. Sounds like someone blackballed him. ... The more important question of course is whether the career diplomat they are substituting for Gen. Zinni will be as good. ... [via Atlantic Politics Channel] 

Update: Michael Goldfarb fingers Holbrooke and Hillary. ... Meanwhile, Zinni says Obama had already called and congratulated him. ... Is Obama running the show? ... Correction: Foreign Policy has issued a correction, and now says it was Biden who called Zinni, not Obama.  "Biden Out of Loop" is definitely more Dog-bites-mannish than "Obama Out of Loop." Still. ...

P.S.: Yes, Zinni is a press favorite. He talks to reporters and they like him. It would be contrarian to say that just means he sucks up to journalists or gives good quotes or plays himself up, but I think being a press fave actually is a positive sign. Reporters tend to have good BS detectors. Press faves who've performed well in office include Gen. Petraeus and Gov. Rendell.. ... And FDR. ... [Update via Corner] 4:00 P.M.

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Bully Victim

Andrew Sullivan writes:

In 2002, we were told, and many of us rolled over, that we had no choice but to invade Iraq. And that time was of the essence. And that inaction was far more dangerous than action.

Funny, I remember Andrew as the one doing the rolling. .... [2002 Daily Dish archives conveniently inaccessible] ... [Thks to alert kf reader BJH.] ...

Update: Readers are more resourceful than I am. Here, for example, is Andrew "rolling over" in May, 2002:

IS BUSH SURRENDERING? Dreadful news today that the president may be wavering in his intent to destroy the Iraqi regime. If true, then those of us who have supported the war on terror need to revise our assessment of this president. He told the German press yesterday that there is no plan to invade on his desk. He said it almost proudly. His military leaders, in a sign of their determination to risk nothing and achieve nothing, are now leaking to the Washington Post that they have all but scotched a serious military option in Iraq. The arguments they are using sound like they might come from a Gore administration. After all that this president has said, after all that he has asked, a reversal on this central question would be nothing short of a staggering betrayal of trust, a reversal of will and determination. Of course, there should be no peremptory, rushed or botched war. Of course, all options should be examined. But the signs are unmistakable. This president, having begun as an improvement on his father, is showing signs that he could end up as something even worse. It's time he heard from his supporters that this is a critical matter on which there can be no compromise. If he balks, it will be worse than his father's betrayal on taxes. It will be a betrayal of the very security of the American people.

3:39 P.M.

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